So, Rudd is struggling in the polls? This is hardly surprising considering he was elected on a platform of not being the other guy. We didn’t really know what he stood for then, we don’t really know what he stands for now. Once the Coalition got their shit together, they were always going to gain ground.

We know he stands for action on climate change … kinda. Only enough so as to not piss anyone off. We know he stands for a more humane asylum seeker policy. Sorta. As long as that more humane policy doesn’t appear to be ‘weak’ on ‘border protection’. (How the right keep framing the debates so well will never cease to amaze me.)

And in being so careful not to step on anyone’s toes he has alienated everyone. And for what? The people he tries so hard not to offend were likely never to support him anyway. Instead he comes across as gutless, do nothing, and direction-less.

We know he hasn’t had the easiest Senate to deal with. Working with the Coalition would seem a lot easier than trying to get Family First and The Greens to agree to agree with each other, let alone the ALP. But it’s weak. It waters down their policy and closes the gap between the ALP and The Coalition even further, when there really wasn’t a lot of margin there to play with. Rudd has acted in government like he acted in a campaign. He has had three years to govern and he doesn’t really seem like he has done much of it.

The ALP loses credibility when discussing the issues and looks weak when discussing the process.

That said, I hope Labor gets a second term and an easier Senate to negotiate. The Greens holding the balance of power in their own right would bring the debate back towards the left, and I don’t think that’s at all a bad thing for the country or for the government.

With more certainty in the Senate, perhaps Rudd won’t fold so easily. A stronger ETS policy, more ‘revolution’ in their education and health policy, a genuinely humane approach to asylum seekers and real action on closing the gap with indigenous Australians.

If Rudd wants to win this election, he now has an uphill battle to fight. He needs to sell a vision, he needs to stop playing so ‘safe’ and sell a vision of Australia. Stop being so process driven, and chase after the policy and sell it to Australia. Of course, this assumes he has a vision that he’s struggling to sell. Which I am not totally convinced he has.

But if you’re running out of reasons why he deserves another chance and a second term, remember: he’s not the other guy. Worked for him last time.

But just quietly, I’m kinda hoping Julia books her ticket to Mars.

Tags: ALP, asylum seekers, ETS, Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Liberal Party, The Spock Manifesto, Tony Abbott