Time for the launch of Groupthink’s first competition, and this one’s going to be interesting.

With the Coalition seriously lagging behind the government in poll after poll, and with constant white-anting of leader Malcolm Turnbull within his own party, it’s a reasonably safe bet that Turbull will never be Prime Minister of this country. Not only will it take a miracle for the coalition to win in 2010, it will take a Herculean effort from Malcy to remain Opposition leader until 2013. So with that in mind, Groupthink has opened a Book and it’s time for you to take a punt: on what date will Malcolm Turnbull lose the leadership of the federal opposition?
Place your bet in the comments of this post, ensuring that you nominate a full date: day, month and year. For bonus points, also nominate the person you think will take over as leader upon Malcolm’s departure. The eventual winner will win something that will be determined at the time of the winning. A mystery prize, if you will.
Have at it!

team@groupthink.com.au

#1 by Will Grant on 28 October 2009 - 8:16 am
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February 28 2011, leadership to be taken by Andrew Robb.
#2 by glengyron on 28 October 2009 - 8:52 am
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A tsunami will wash him out to see over the Christmas period, a la Latham.
I’m not sure who goes next, but I’m looking forward to the Joh for PM campaign. Sorry, I mean Barnaby.
#3 by Trevor McDonald on 28 October 2009 - 9:29 am
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I’d nominate Norm Gallagher but hes dead.
So I predict Bill Short will cross the floor and join the country party and succeed Malcolm in 2013 and become PM.
#4 by Tobias Ziegler on 28 October 2009 - 11:07 am
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First, a correction – it should be “COALITION LEADER (EXCEPT FOR TUCKEY AND THE NATIONALS)”. Even Warren Truss has more control over the Nats than Turnbull.
Second, my prediction – I’ll assume Malcolm MacKerras was right and the election will be held on August 21, 2010. Malcolm Turnbull will announce he is resigning his leadership in the late evening on August 21, 2010. Much as I’d love to see the Mad Monk have a tilt at running things, I’ll tip Andrew Robb.
#5 by Jason on 28 October 2009 - 11:17 am
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I’ll say early evening on August 21st – no later than 7:30 EST.
King Joe to take the reins.
#6 by Rx on 28 October 2009 - 12:02 pm
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11 September 2009: to be succeeded by Godwin Grech.
#7 by Molesworth on 28 October 2009 - 12:22 pm
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To be fair, old son, people once said the same thing about Mr. Howard. Mr. Turnbull’s time may come yet.
#8 by Campbell on 28 October 2009 - 1:46 pm
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Yes, Molesworth. Your vision my be short but your memory isn’t.
#9 by Scott Bridges on 28 October 2009 - 4:02 pm
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I’m going to go 12 October 2010. Malcy won’t quit following the loss and it will take the Coalition troops a couple of months to get their shit together and organise a spill.
#10 by Bron on 28 October 2009 - 5:43 pm
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I pick anytime between now and the moment it’s announced.
I’ve won. Give up.
#11 by Mr Pastry on 3 November 2009 - 9:12 pm
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Actually, I have come from the future and know that he resigns the leadership next July in order to accept a well paid government post offered by Kevin Rudd, thus completing Kevins stunning plan of getting rid of his opposition by employing them all – quite brilliant.
#12 by Broken left leg on 20 November 2009 - 4:30 pm
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I’m torn between two dates.
Quick ETS hari kari Dec 7, 2009.
Slow cooking ETS by chef Disgruntled backbencher, April 17,2010.
#13 by Dave Gaukroger on 24 November 2009 - 3:50 pm
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November 24th 2009 – Replaced by Kevin Andrews with Andrew Robb as deputy.
#14 by David F on 25 November 2009 - 11:49 am
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There is no greater dishonour than to be slain by a Lego man. Malcom has nowhere to hide if he doesn’t pull through.
#15 by Molesworth on 26 November 2009 - 12:17 pm
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Kevin Andrews. Who saw that coming?
#16 by Broken left leg on 28 November 2009 - 7:03 pm
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“Kevin Andrews. Who saw that coming?”
that would be me Molesworth.
#17 by ileum on 2 December 2009 - 9:10 am
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Looks like Tobias had a wish granted.